2018 Aegean in Flames: A concert of Harpoons and Exocets

Scalp EG is one of the few strategic assets in the Greek Arsenal that can tip the balance

 

Following the last week’s hot incident, when a Patrol ship of the Turkish Coast Guard intentionally managed to ram a Greek Patrol ship near IMIA islands, the possibility of armed conflict rises. During the collision, the OPV 90 Gaydos had suffered serious damage in the rear of its hull. This combined with the fact that the Turkish navy prohibited an Italian Offshore Drilling Ship belonging to ENI, to conduct research drills inside Cyprus Exclusive Economic Zone, raises a rather unfriendly situation between Greece and Turkey.

A possible armed event in the following months is highly anticipated. In this article we would try to simulate a possible Greek Armed Response to Turkey’s ambition to control the Aegean and Cyprus oil Reserves in Eastern Med.

There are two areas of Turkish interest. One Are is in the North and Central Aegean where previous studies and drills showed that there are moderate Sea oil and gas reserves. That area brought the two countries to the brink of a war in 1987 during the Seismic Incident. Greece since then have established only a few small oil drilling platforms south of Kavala (Prinos Area).

A very old picture from one of the first sea based oil platforms South of Kaval, Northern Aegean

While Turkey could be engaged in oil exploration in Central Aegean especially near the Imbros and Tenedos Islands, the financial feasibility of such endeavour is not very promising. The last decade, the Holy Grail of Oil exploration is a vast area between Cyprus, Israel, Lebanon and Egypt. This area is located South of Cyprus and is threatened by the Turkish plans for offshore drilling even in Cyrpus EEZ. Turkey doesn’t recognize the sovereignty of Cyprus since the invasion of 1974 and the separation of the island. Therefore considers itself as a regulator for the Turk-Cypriot part of the island which was excluded from the talks.

Our goal in this article is to analyse the military aspects of this possible conflict. Two areas will be analysed, Northern Aegean and the Sea Area between Rhode Island and Cyprus.

To control this area and having in mind that there is no real threat from the limited Cypriot Navy, its main rival is the Greek counterpart. The best way to blockade Greek Navy’s response and is to isolate the area between the Rhode Island, Kastelorizo and Cyprus.

Except the various vessels that will be listed below, the proximity of the Dalaman Naval Airforce Base to that Area can contribute the Turkish Navy with constant presence of ASW air assets like the S-70 B Helicopters, CN-235 MPA and ATR 72 ASW Patrol aircraft. This could minimise the possible routes of the Greek submarines towards Cyprus.

A possible crisis could begin with the sinking of one of the Greek Patrol vessels (this almost happened the previous Sunday)  in the Eastern Med Area along with the capture or prohibition of Sea Drilling Ships in Central Aegean and Eastern Med.

-What forces could be used to confront the vast Turkish navy?

-Can the turkish upgraded Perry Class Frigate still be considered a reliable AAW support vessel?

-Do Greek Armed forces have the right tools to prevail?

-How would the airforce’s QRA assets contribute in an air/naval scenario?

We will try to analyse a possible Alpha Strike initiated by the Greek forces against a numerically superior Turkish navy which has been deployed in the Central Aegean and Eastern Med (between Kastelorizo and Rhode Island). The codename of the combined TASMO/AsuW Operation would be Astrapi (Thunder)-2/18

Rival Forces

Greek Navy:

The main Greek Surface fleet is comprised of 5 FAC Super Vita (armed with long range Exocet Blk 3), 9 S Class  and 4 MEKO frigates credits to @NickThodos photographer

The main objectives of the Greek Armed forces would be :

1. Restore Sea Control, Destruction of the Turkish Navy vessels in Central Aegean
2. Restore Sea Control, Destruction of the Turkish Navy vessels in Eastern Med
3. Neutralise Dalaman AFB and Turkish Navy’s air ASW assets
4. Destroy Radar Installations in Western Turkey (Secondary Side mission)

The main Greek military assets used during this operation:

Greek Armed Forces
Skyros AFB (Central Aegean)	Near Psara Island	Near Kafirea Strait/ Sporades	Eastern Med	Greek Army Lesvos Island and Agios Eustratios	Greek Airforce Tanagra AFB/Souda  Crete AFB
SAM Patriot Battery	FAC Combantante IIIb Class Kavaloudis (Harpoon)	U 209 submarine (UGM Harpoon)	FFG MEKO 200 HN Hydra (Harpoon)	3xM270 MLRS (ATACMS)	20x Mirage 2000-5 Mk2 (Scalp-EG)
MM40 Coastal Battery SSM Exocet Blk I	FAC Combantante IIIb Class Kavaloudis (Penguin Mk2)	U 209 submarine (UGM Harpoon)	FFG Kortenaer S Class (Harpoon,RIM 7 Sparrow)	FFG Kortenaer S Class (Harpoon,RIM 7 Sparrow)	12x Mirage 2000 EGM (AM-39 Exocet)
FAC Combantante Class Laskos (MM40 Exocet Blk II)	FFG Kortenaer S Class (Harpoon,RIM 7 Sparrow)		FAC Super Vita (MM40 Exocet Blk III, RAM)	FFG MEKO 200 HN Hydra (Harpoon)	12x F-16 Block 52+ AAW/SEAD (Amraam/ HARM)
			1x P3B Maritime Patrol Aircraft	FAC Super Vita (MM40 Exocet Blk II)	1x EMB-145 AEW&C Aircraft, 4x Pegasos UAV

Turkish Navy:

The Turkish Navy main force consists 8 Perry Class (4 of them fully upgraded), 8 MEKO 200 Track I and II Frigates along with 6 A69 Corvettes and 2 Milgem Class Corvettes

The main objectives of the Turkish Armed forces would be :

1. Pursuit of any Sea Drilling Exploration ship in Central Aegean and near Rhode Island
2. Naval Blockade on Kastelorizo Island
3.  Sea Control in both areas and also protecting turkish Sea Drilling platform ship in Eastern Med while conducting research exploration drilling inside disputed Exclusive Economic Zone (claimed by both Greece and Turkey), south of Kastelorizo

The main Turkish military assets used during this operation:

Turkish Armed Forces
SAG Central Aegean	SAG South Eastern Med	SAG South2 Eastern Med	Dalaman AFB	Turkish Airforce Konya, Dalaman, Balikesir,Cigli, Bandirma
FFG MEKO 200 Track I (Harpoon, RIM-7)	FFG MEKO 200 Track IIb (Harpoon, ESSM)	FFG MEKO 200 Track I (Harpoon, RIM-7)	2x Rapier SAM	55 x F-16 CCIP AAW QRA(Amraam /HARM)
FFG MEKO 200 Track IIb (Harpoon, ESSM)	FFG MEKO 200 Track IIa (Harpoon, RIM-7)	FFG MEKO 200 Track IIa (Harpoon, RIM-7)	2x Altigan SAM (Stinger)
2x FFG Perry Gabya Class (Harpoon, ESSM, SM-1)	FFG Perry Gabya Class (Harpoon, ESSM, SM-1)	FFG Perry Gabya Class (Harpoon, SM-1)	4x Oerilkon 35mm AAA
3x FAC FPB-57 Dogan Class (Harpoon)	3xFFL A69 Corvette (L5 mod 4 torpedo)	4x FAC Killic II (Harpoon), blockading Kastelorizo Island	4x S-70B SeaHawk ASW Helicopter
FFL Ada Class (Harpoon, RAM)	FFL Ada Class (Harpoon, RAM)	FFL A69 Corvette (L5 mod 4 torpedo)	4x ATR-72 ASW
FFL A69 Corvette (L5 mod 4 torpedo)			3x CN-235 MPA

 

Before sending any exploration/Drilling vessel, Turkey would  bind for military Naval Exercises a vast naval sector (as did after the ramming of Greek Gavdos OPV) on the above disputed area of interest. This is the area from the recent NAVTEX issued on 15 of February (NW NR0235/18) with which Turkey binds the highlighted area for military drills

The whole operation to meet the Goal of the Greek Forces can be separated in three phases. One neutralising the strategic importance Dalaman AFB, secondly eliminating the naval threat in Central Aegean and lastly opening a safe naval corridor between Cyprus and Greece in Eastern Med.

The Greek-Turkish theater in case of a possible war is mainly the Aegean and Cyprus Sea Area in addition to a relative small land area in Thrace called Evros Region. In land , the two countries are separated by a sizeable enough river (called Evros, Maritsa or Meriç river) which can be considered as a defensive barrier from both sides. The Aegean Archipelago consists of multiple Greek Islands along with a few Turkish ones. Cyprus also is around 550 km away from Crete Island. In this area Turkey (in addition to Central Aegean) wants to expand it’s Exclusive Economic Zone. No peaceful agreement has been reached between the two countries and this is the central point of any crisis.

To avoid full-scale war with Turkey, the Greek Armed Forces could hit swiftly with concentrated firepower against one of Turkey’s main pillars of projecting power in the region, the massive Turkish Navy. Neutralising or reducing to critical Turkish navy’s ability to conduct naval operations, safeguards the rest of the Greek forces in the Cyprus and Aegean Archipelago.

Key Aspects for accomplishment:

• Strike in short time with available assets, not fully mobilising to avoid general alarm
• Greek AEW&C operation mainly ELINT, only open the Erieye radar before the naval strike begins
• Considering the numerous QRA air assets of the rival Turkish airforce, the time that Greek strike aircraft are spotted should be minimised
• 8x F-16 CCIP from TuAF is patrolling the area around the Turkish naval forces. Neutralising them beforehand will benefit the AsuW mission
• A synchronised surprise attack in the three key objectives is a must
• One-shot execution, no recursive strike packages

Phase 0: Lights Out

The initial strike package includes 20 x Mirage 2000-5 Mk2, each armed with one SCALP-EG cruise missile along with 2xMica IR for self-defense. Typical strike radius of this setup is 450nm in HI-HI flight profile. Their primary target is the Dalaman AFB and the infliction of maximum damage in Turkish navy’s stationed ASW air assets.

In our case to avoid detection the Strike package will fly in a Low-Low profile from Tanagra AFB and use the Cluster of Cyclades islands as cover to avoid detection from the land-based Turkish Early Warning radars in Minor Asia. Due to the Earth’s curvature the Horizon of the Turkish radar’s in low flying targets is far less than the hundreds of kilometers which is the typical range against a fighter aircraft.

Targeting data for fixed targets in Dalaman AFB is provided by the MUSIS network of surveillance satellites (Greece has joined in this EU project with 2.5% of total cost).

In Tanagra AFB, there is a Satellite Receiver station that communicates directly with the MUSIS  surveillance network. This station is operated by 331 Squadron which is the home base of the Mirage 2000-5 mk2/SCALP EG  aircraft

The Greek Strike package consisting of 20 Mirage-2000-5 mk2 have plotted course (Low-Low Profile) through the Cyclades Islands to minimise the risk of detection

 

SCALP EG cruise missiles are launched in that way that to arrive in the same time and from different paths to saturate airfield’s AAA

 

Everything is quiet…too quiet…

 

While the 20 Mirage 2000-5 Strike package has departed, the Low flying profile have prevented them from being spotted. Current Turkish situational awareness have identified a P-3B maritime Aircraft patrolling north of Crete, a UAV Pegasos north of the Central Aegean SAG, another one South of Athens and 3 other unidentified aircraft near Turkish naval forces which will be intercepted by the patrolling Turkish F-16 fighters

A few kilometers before the launch point and Strike package remained unnoticed. The low flying profile increases greatly the consumption of fuel, small margin for error

The Turkish CAP aircraft are busy with identifying the Pegasos UAV in the area, still no sign of any Greek fighters on their radars

While Strike package reaches their launch point, the pre-programmed targets are ready to be engaged. First Priority targets are A/C Hardened Shelter (HAS) and Medium Aircaft Hangar

SCALP EG is equipped with a highly advanced warhead. This infographic shows the operation of the BROACH warhead which can penetrate effectively various Hardened Targets like HAS or underground bunkers. The two stage warhead concept is used, one for penetration and rest for follow through HE detonation

SCALP EG cruise missiles are launched with pre-programmed flight paths so that to arrive in the same time and from different angles to saturate airfield’s AAA

Everything is quiet…too quiet…

Vampire Vampire…identified 20 nm from Dalaman AFB. Two QRA aircraft from Dalaman AFB with readiness 2 minutes try to take-off

1:18:59  – Contact MISSILE #123 has been lost.

1:18:59 – Contact MISSILE #124 has been lost.

1:18:59 – Pegasus II UAV has been destroyed!

1:18:59  – Contact MISSILE #125 has been lost.

1:18:59  – Weapon: AIM-120B AMRAAM #2406 is attacking Pegasus II UAV with a base PH of 90%. Final PH: 90%. Result: 82 – HIT

1:18:59 – Weapon: AIM-120B AMRAAM #2407 is attacking Pegasus II UAV with a base PH of 90%. Final PH: 90%. Result: 82 – HIT

1:18:59 – Weapon: AIM-120B AMRAAM #2408 is attacking Pegasus II UAV with a base PH of 90%. Final PH: 90%. Result: 7 – HIT

1:18:59 – New contact! Designated MISSILE #128 – Detected by Pegasus II UAV [Sensors: Generic FLIR] at 193deg – 23,2nm

1:18:55 – New contact! Designated MISSILE #127 – Detected by Pegasus II UAV [Sensors: Generic FLIR] at 143deg – 0,6nm – Small Contrail Detected

The Mirage 2000-5 mk2 aircraft is one of the few in the Region capable of carrying the sub-strategic SCALP-EG cruise missile

Immediately the Turkish CAP aircraft responded, destroying 3  Pegasus UAV that were monitoring Central Aegean and Eastern Med. One of those UAV wreckage fell on Rhode Island

Various QRA F-16 CCIP aircraft from Konya, Balikesir, Cigli AFB are trying to take-off

A few moments after the downing of the Pegasus UAV, some low flying Greek Falcons was identified south of Turkish Naval forces, the 4 CAP CCIP are ordered to engage immediately. Another Pegasus UAV was shot down

In the same time Patriot missile battery located in Skyros AFB launched  PAC-2 GEM-T missiles against patrolling turkish CAP aircraft in Central Aegean, Skyguard battery (RIM-7) also activated for self-protection. First Turkish aircraft is shot down, moments later the sky is clear in Central Aegean. While some Patriot miss due to EW warfare, 2-3 missiles per aircraft can prove quite effective

 

While Patrolling Turkish aircraft are approaching and re-route, Greek fighters had for a few seconds the element of surprise launching their Amraams. While unnoticed 8 Mirage 2000 (altitude 300 ft) armed with Exocets anti-ship missiles and 4 F-16 Falcons armed with HARM anti-radar missiles  are approaching from different angles

1:21:27- Weapon: AIM-120C-7 AMRAAM P3I.3 #2422 has run out of energy… self-destructing

1:21:27 – Weapon: AIM-120C-7 AMRAAM P3I.3 #2425 has run out of energy… self-destructing

1:21:21 – Onyx #2 (F-16DM Blk 40 Falcon [Peace Onyx III CCIP Upgr]) has been destroyed!

1:21:21 – Flight 2314 has no units left; dissolving…

1:21:21 – Contact MISSILE #78 has been lost.

1:21:21 – Weapon: AIM-120C-7 AMRAAM P3I.3 #2430 is attacking Onyx #2 (F-16DM Blk 40 Falcon [Peace Onyx III CCIP Upgr]) with a base PH of 95%. PH adjusted for distance: 76%. Onyx #2 has nominal agility: 4,9, adjusted for altitude: 4,9. Agility adjusted for proficiency (Regular): 3,92. Aircraft has a weight fraction of 0,16 – Agility adjusted to 3,55. Agility adjusted for tail-on impact effect: 1,8. Final agility modifier: -18%. Final PH: 58%. Result: 30 – HIT

The latest F-16 Block 52+ of the Peace Xenia III order, proved quite effective both outmatching F-16 CCIP fighters due to a better engine and also performing SEAD with its HARM and ASPIS II EW (Jammer and RWR)

Eastern Med: All Turkish F-16s are down, more QRA fighters might approach from north, Mirage Strike package in position, starting AsuW phase

1:21:39  – Contact F-16DM Blk 50 Falcon [Peace Onyx III CCIP Upgr] #75 has been lost.

1:21:39  – Weapon: AIM-120C-7 AMRAAM P3I.3 #2432 is attacking Kon #3 (F-16DM Blk 50 Falcon [Peace Onyx III CCIP Upgr]) with a base PH of 95%. PH adjusted for distance: 62%. Kon #3 has nominal agility: 4,9, adjusted for altitude: 4,9. Agility adjusted for proficiency (Regular): 3,92. Aircraft has a weight fraction of 0,14 – Agility adjusted to 3,59. Agility adjusted for tail-on impact effect: 1,8. Final agility modifier: -18%. Final PH: 44%. Result: 35 – HIT

Lights out, engage the Turkish navy

Eastern Med: While the first SCALP EG reaches the Dalaman AFB, penetrating HAS and rest of the Hangars, first Exocets also reaches the Meko 200 Track IIa and A69 Corvette which were used as a screening force to the rest of the fleet. In total 2 Exocet missiles out of 5 hit the Barbaros frigate immediately sinking it and 2 missile hit the A69 corvette. Rest of them was intercepted by the RIM 7 Sparrow AA launched from the Barbaros frigate. The Dalaman AFB air defenses proved inefficient against the SCALP cruise missiles. Airfield’s defenses included 4 x GDF-002 Oerilkon (35mm) AAA, 2 x Altigan (Stinger), 2x upgraded Rapier B1X. Two Blindfire FCR radar were cueing the Rapier and 2 x UAR-2001 FCR Skyguard radar were present for the AAA guns . The SCALP-EG wasn’t constantly tracked (last known position of them was 3-4 minutes away) and Rapier’s DMZ against a low flying target was really small. Only one SCALP was intercepted successfully while two other malfunctioned.

STORM SHADOW or SCALP EG proved an excellent first strike weapon avoiding the Dalaman AFB Air Defenses

Eastern Med: The S-70 Helicopter which had Barbaros frigate as home base tries to reach rest of the helipads in another frigate. All ASW assets are ordered to return to base to avoid being shot

Central Aegean: Various Turkish QRA fighter are trying to protect the Central Aegean fleet but with no effect, Greek SAG Group in Agios Eustratios has been ordered to engage

Even few in number (used 12 out of 18 Exocet capable aircraft), the Mirage 2000 proved quite effective using the element of surprise to sneak in and hit on the weak spot of the Turkish naval forces in the Eastern Med and further saturating Turkish air defenses afterwards

Eastern Med: While the Turkish side is launching a retaliation Strike against the Greek fleet it is unable to provide air support against the Mirage Strike aircraft launching Exocets from stand-off range. A couple of QRA aircraft is approaching (70 nm away-Jammed) but they may not prevent them from launching their missiles

Eastern Med: Turkish side (through S-70 B helicopters) have identified the Greek SAG Group south of their positions, they haven’t identified 2 FAC Super Vita (anchored in islets near Rhodes and Ikaria) armed with long-range Exocet Block 3 missiles

 

Eastern Med: SEAD aircraft is opening the way for the rest of the Exocets and Harpoons launched. The Turkish naval command might have a hard time

Central Aegean: With its air assets gone in a few minutes due to the presence of Patriot missiles in Skyros AFB, the turkish fleet cannot identify correctly all the greek ships in the area even if it gets some targeting info from surface radars and approaching F-16s (through link 16)

 

Central Aegean: The Greek Army contributed a little further to the SSM missile barrage, used its Atacms missiles to engage radar sites that were monitoring Central Aegean. The Turkish Rapier SAM along with HAWK batteries will try unsuccessfully to shoot them down. First ESSM and SM-1 missiles launched from the Turkish naval Group in 11 nm from the Turkish vessels

While supersonic HARM missiles isn’t an easy target to engage, its High-flying profile made it a noticeable target against the SM-1 and ESSM of the Turkish Perry and MEKO 200 frigates. Regardless of that it gave valuable time for the rest of the Exocets and Harpoons following to come closer

In the South the Mirage 2000s are leaving their last deadly cargo. Turkish fleet is launching massive ESSM and SM-1 to counter the incoming SSM

In the Central Aegean, Perry class gone despite the RAM missile fired of the nearby Milgem…Exocet and Harpoon missiles in minimal range

Central Aegean: Another Turkish ship sunk, a MEKO 200 Track I frigate

Central Aegean: Milgem Corvette is in deadly range

Central Aegean: Despite the hit 29 feet away from its central point, Milgem Corvette got sunk by a Harpoon missile

With the Exocet missiles launched, rest of the Mirage 2000 return to base. Will the combined attack on Central and Eastern Med be successful ?

 

A Dogan FAC got in their way of a Harpoon missile. Guns guns guns…Blasted

A A69 corvette was badly hit by the Haproon missile , flooding and started sinking

The last Perry FFG from the SAG Group has been sinking, got hit by two missiles

While the Turkish Retaliation strike reaches its target, a Super Vita FAC got hit and started sinking

 

The FAC Super Vita is an excellent light attack ship armed with long range missile (Exocet Blk II/III) and a RAM CIWS for self-defense. While RAM can take out effectively 4-6 missiles, it is cannot stop a massive SSM salvo

The Patriot Missile Battery in Skyros AFB in Central Aegean proved quite effective against aicraft and SSM missiles providing total air support to the nearby Greek Forces. A Skyguard (RIM-7 Sparrow) SAM was also present on the island

 

Central Aegean: Almost 15 minutes have passed from the initial strike, the MM40 coastal batteries reloaded their missiles….a salvo of 8 is coming towards the last position of the remaining FFG Salihreis Frigate. Also some of the Harpoon’s launched against an identified S Class frigate is intercepted by the Patriot missile batteries

In the South: Another Turkish ship gone, A 69 corvette

 

While the battle in the sea is raging, greek BVR aircrafts try to intercept any incoming turkish QRA fighter

 

A second greek vessel got hit south of Aegean, a Kortenaer S class frigate

While the upgraded S Class frigates are quite effective as General Purpose Frigate, if exposed to a heavy SSM salvo, their air defenses saturate easily (1 STIR and RIM 7 Sparrow). The modernisation program done back in the 00s, didn’t upgrade the AAW capability

Eastern Med: Another Turkish vessel got hit by an MM40 Exocet Block 3

Central Aegean: The last standing Meko 200 Track IIb Class Frigate of the Strong Central Aegean Fleet got hit…

Turkish MEKO 200 Track IIb Salihreis Class frigate was the last standing Turkish FFG in the Central Aegean. While remarkably effective, it run out of ESSMs protecting rest of the fleet. A second-wave strike from the coastal battery in Skyros island proved deadly enough

While close but not close enough, the turkish F-16 didn’t manage to protect the last turkish frigate in Central Aegean

Eastern Med: Two Turkish Frigates who were patrolling next to each other got hit by incoming Exocet and Harpoon missile. Meko 200 Track IIb withstood the hit but quickly started  flooding

Another hit on Salihreis Class Frigate….81 percent damage, flooding 75%, fire on 25 % of the vessel. Also another A69 corvette got hit and started sinking.

The MEKO 200 Barbaros Class Frigate standing near to Salihreis frigate got the a hit by an Exocet blk III missile. Both of the vessels didn’t sink immediately. Damage on Salihreis reached 80% along with flooding and 25 % fire. The crew disembarked. While Salihreis FFG was sinking, the crew of MEKO 200 Track IIa Barbaros managed to save the ship. Total damage on the ship was 60 % but still the main radars were operational even if the helicopter hangar along with a STIR and Cutlass ELINT equipment were destroyed

The explosion after an SSM missile hits a Frigate may be devastating but in some cases the ship might still be battle-operational

The last MEKO 200 , part of the Greek Eastern Med SAG Group got multiple hits. The Greek ships part of the Eastern Med SAG Group, didn’t survive the massive missile attack. Both of them started sinking with total fire/damage reaching 70-80%. Remaining crew tried to disembark, still waiting for a rescue mission in the middle of the Eastern Med

 

While the Hydra class frigate has a full armament covering AsuW/ASW and Air Defense the 16 only ESSM doesn’t make it an AAW frigate but rather a multi-role frigate with advanced Air Defense capabilities

The engines of the Barbaros FFG were intact, giving it the ability to return back to a safe port along with rescued sailors from the rest of the fleet

With Casualties from both sides, SAR/CSAR missions will be launched to save the crews from the sinking ships

Aftermath

The aftermath of the above operations are quite different for both navies (HN and TN)

Total losses on both sides are listed

Hellenic Armed Forces Losses:

1x FAC Super Vita

1x Kortenaer Upgraded S Class frigate

1x Meko 200HN Hydra Class

4x Pegasos UAV

Turkish Armed Forces Losses:

3x F-16DM Blk 50 Falcon [Peace Onyx III CCIP Upgr]
6x F-16DM Blk 40 Falcon [Peace Onyx III CCIP Upgr]
2x F-16DM Blk 50 Falcon [Peace Onyx III CCIP Upgr]
11x S-70B-28 Seahawk
3x A/C Hangar (4x Medium Aircraft)
2x CN-235MPA Persuader [Meltem II]
2x A/C Hangar (1x Very Large Aircraft)
4x ATR-72-ASW [Meltem III]
1x A/C Hangar (2x Large Aircraft)
8x A/C Hardened Aircraft Shelter (1x Medium Aircraft)

2x 35mm Twin Oerlikon [UAR-1021 Skyguard FCR]
1x Vehicle (UAR-1021 Skyguard)
1x Radar (TRS 22XX)
1x Radar (AN/FPS-88)

5x FFL F 500 Bozcaada [A 69]  ASW corvette
1x FFG F 244 Barbaros [Meko 200TN Track IIA]
3x FFG F 495 Gediz Upgraded Perry [Perry, Gabya Class]
2x FFG F 240 Yavuz [Meko 200TN Track I]
2x FFL F 511 Heybeliada [Ada Class]
1x FAC P 340 Dogan [FPB-57]
2x FFG F 246 Salihreis [Meko 200TN Track IIB]

Some key notes about the Turkish Forces:

• Perry FFG upgraded ships  has proven themselves as very capable limited AAW ship while using both ESSM and SM-1MR (44 of them used). In our scenario we took the worst case of those vessels being fully armed. Each one was armed with 32xESSMs (Mk 41 VLS) and 35xSM-1 MR (Mk13 launcher). This situation will change in the following decade due to the lack of technical support for the SM-1 missile. Still the ships would be quite efficient but with smaller AAW magazines. Smart-S mk2 radar even if not state of the art did the job of identifying incoming SSMs quite remarkably
• Salihreis Meko 200 Track IIb, armed with 32xESSMs, Scorpion Jammer and 2xStir FCR was a tough nut to crack. The sustaining of 1 hit and keep fighting distinguish it as the flagship of the Turkish Navy
• While fighting as Surface Attack Group in Central Aegean, the proximity of the Greek islands and the threats (Patriot SAM battery, Exocet Coastal Battery, Greek Navy ships at advantageous position behind islets) that they oppose may overcome Turkish Navy’s capability to withstand a multi-direction SSM massive salvo. A navy without air assets to provide early warning against low flying threats is quite vunerable
• The lack of Integraded Air Defenses in the Turkish sovereignty, proved devastating. The Rapier and Altigan (Stinger) SAM systems are ineffective against modern threats like cruise missiles. the Dalaman AFB was completely annihilated. Four of its ASW ATR-72 aircraft were destroyed along with 2xCN-235 MPA and 6xS-70 B Helicopters. Also another bunch of 3xF-16s were destroyed
• Turkish QRA fighters didnt manage to protect the Turkish fleet. Except Dalaman AFB the rest of them (Konya, Cigli) were located too far away from the South SAG naval forces in Eastern Med. From the point that the Greek Attack have been recognized till the time that enemy missiles reached the Turkish ships, the total time was 10-12 minutes
• Total losses for Turkish navy were quite heavy 5xFFG MEKO 200, 3xFFG Perry Advanced, 2x FFL Milgem Ada Class Corvette, 5xA69 FFL ASW corvette and 1 FAC Dogan. In addition the loss of 4xATR72 ASW aircraft along with 2 CN-235 MPA seriously reduced Turkish navy’s ability to control the Sea area between  Cyprus and Crete.

Some key notes about the Greek Forces:

• The P-3B and EMB-145 Erireye (as Elint) proved extremely capable in identifying from a long distance the type of the Turkish vessels (FFG/FFL/FAC)
• Greek Mirage 2000 fighter armed with Exocets are extremely dangerous because they can wreak havoc in the soft spots of any turkish SAG Group (Milgem and the initial 2 hits on SAG South 2 Group Barbaros and A69 corvette). They can further help in saturation of Air Defenses so that the rest of the SSMs reach their targets
• A combined COMAO of HARM/Exocet capable aircraft may pose a serious threat. HARMs aren’t quite effective against well armed enemy naval forces and can be easily engaged. But they can be used as a decoy attack to provide more time for the SSM missiles of the main strike to come closer
• Greek navy’s lack of AAW ships (with big magazines of surface to air missiles) is making any attempt to control the Eastern Med a dangerous mission. In our scenario the small SAG Group was completely destroyed. A solution could be to arm those ships with longer range SSMs like the Exocet block 3 missile. Its range of 180+ km outmatches any Harpoon missile available in Turkish inventory.
• An upgrade program for the MEKO 200 HN frigates is more important than ever. Turkish navy’s current fleet of 16 frigates (8xPerry and 8x MEKO) along with 2xMilgem corvette class (2 more building) is better armed both in AAW roles and AsuW. To be the flagship of the Greek navy, MEKO 200HN needs to be upgraded to a limited AAW capable ship. An installation of an mk41 VLS (or use double canisters for the existing Mk48 launcher os that total missiles carried doubles) along with new radar and possible more STIR FCR (SARH guidance for the ESSM) could be a start
• Greek UAV Pegasos II did their job monitoring closely the Turkish ships. But as any UAV they are expendable

The combination of Mirage and F-16 aircraft in TASMO scenario is one of the distinctive capabilities of the Greek Airforce

PS: We used the strategic air/naval simulator Command: Modern Air/Naval Operations . If anyone is interested in using the sandbox scenario described in the article please send us an email to defencegreeced@gmail.com